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26 January 2026: In 2025, container growth forecast to achieve 4% growth with the momentum having slowed down in Q4.
Suez return is looming which is set to release significant fleet capacity, but initial disruption and congestion is expected for multiple months, while carriers work out a strategy to limit capacity via slow steaming and scrapping.
Weather disruptions become more frequent as climate change is fueling extreme weather that can paralyze ports for days or weeks, e.g., recent typhoons shutting down ports in South China or wreaking havoc in Jamaica.
Tariffs and wars foster geopolitical instability which forces shippers to change routing and sourcing rapidly, creating spikes in demand, e.g., the rapidly changing US tariff landscape or escalations in the Middle East over the last months.
Spot rates continue to swing as carriers use blank sailings and GRIs to defend yields, but demand to sustain these is not always there, while successful GRI attempts may leave late awarders empty-handed.
Index-linked contracts and futures gain traction as rates remain volatile, giving shippers the opportunity to hedge freight cost using established and new indices, e.g., Xeneta, SCFI, WCI or NYFI.
Secondary trades offer outsized, fragmented growth which provides opportunities, e.g., Asia to Africa growing by 26% in 2025, but also creates pressure on ports to accommodate feeder vessels and transshipment options. Source: DHL Global Forwarding