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24 June 2025 – Allianz Trade Global Survey took the pulse before and after the announcement of sweeping US import tariffs on April 2. The findings reveal the toll of the trade war and coping mechanisms for 4,500 exporters in nine key countries that account for close to 60% of global GDP.
✅ The unpredictability of US trade policy has dented exporters’ confidence: 42% of exporting companies now anticipate turnover to decline between -2% and -10% over the next 12 months vs. fewer than 5% before the “Liberation Day”
✅ Companies coping by raising costs and diversification: Few companies intend to absorb increased costs or cut export prices to maintain market share, especially in the US where 54% of companies plan to raise prices. More than one third of businesses have already found new markets to export to, while almost two thirds were planning on doing so. A majority of firms are seeking alternative shipping routes
✅ US-China decoupling, Europe-Asia rapprochement, and Latin America as the quiet winner of the trade war: friendshoring is likely to continue gaining traction, with Europe and Latin America emerging as attractive alternatives for Chinese firms, and European firms increasingly interested in exporting to China and Asia. Chinese and European firms are looking to Latin America for rerouting and circumvention strategies
✅ Exporters anticipate longer payment terms and increased non-payment risk: 25% of exporters anticipate payment terms longer by more than 7 days, a surge of +13pps, and nearly half of exporters (48%) anticipate increased non-payment risk
Read the Global Survey here: https://ow.ly/8JH050VWlPu
Source: Allianz Trade South Africa