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17 October 2024 – After having increased for three consecutive months, the Ctrack Transport and Freight Index (Ctrack TFI) declined notably to reach an index level of 119.8 in July, the lowest since February 2024. The weakness evident in the logistics sector has been quite broad-based with five of the six sub-sectors declining on a monthly basis in June, followed by further declines in July in four sub-sectors.
Overall, the Ctrack TFI moved into contractionary territory on an annual basis, 1% lower in July 2024 compared to a year earlier, while a sizeable 3,2% lower compared to the three months ending April. While the last two months’ performance is indeed disappointing, it masks a better performance of the logistics sector overall, year to date.
A comparison of the first seven months of 2024 to the corresponding period in 2023 revealed better performances in five of the six sub-sectors, with only the heavy-weighted road freight sub- sector contracting.
The rail freight sub-sector lost ground in July, declining by 2,4% compared to June, but continues its gradual recovery overall. For the first seven months of 2024, rail freight increased by 9,4% compared to the corresponding period in 2023. Though off a very low base, progress has been made despite many ongoing challenges plaguing the sector. The sharp focus on the sector as one of government’s main structural reform initiatives to revive the economy.
The shutdown was primarily focused on initiatives to unlock train slots on the coal line. To this end, two additional slots and 28 km of speed restrictions were unlocked, enabling TFR to increase from 24 planned train slots per day to 28 at the Richards Bay Coal Terminal.
The heavily weighted road freight sub-sector, which has grown notably in recent years and currently accounts for 8,6% of all freight payload in South Africa, subsided again in June and July, after three consecutive positive monthly growth rates. The sector has generally been on a downward trend for most of the previous 12 months as is also evident in a drop of 1,5% in the first seven months of 2024, compared to the corresponding period in 2023.
Government’s structural reform initiatives, as outlined in the recently published Freight Logistics Roadmap, aim at restoring and growing rail capacity in South Africa, to ultimately reduce trucks on the roads in the medium term and to reset to a more sustainable road/rail freight balance. However, the task at hand is dauntingly big and it will take some years before a notable trend reversal will be evident.
The air freight has been a star performer among the sub-sectors since the start of 2024, aligning with global trends. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), industry-wide Cargo Tonne-Kilometres (CTK) rose 13,6% year[1]on-year, maintaining record year-to-date demand. International air cargo demand increased 14,3% compared to July 2023, driven by all regions and major trade lanes. Asia Pacific carriers recorded the largest expansion at 17,7% year-on-year, and demand on the Middle East Europe trade lane outpaced all others with an impressive 32,2% annual surge.
Port operations at all major commercial ports were disrupted by severe weather conditions, equipment breakdowns and shortages during July. The Port of Cape Town lost more than 70 operational hours in the second week of July due to strong winds and heavy rain, while strong winds and vessel ranging also caused extensive delays in the Eastern Cape. Equipment breakdowns and shortages persisted in Durban, while strong winds also caused operational delays. Following on better months in May and June, July turned out to be a challenging month for the sea freight sub-component.
The storage and handling sub-sector of the Ctrack Transport and Freight Index declined further by 3,9% on a monthly basis in July, and sagged 8,4% below year[1]ago levels. Inventory indicators declined during July, while total transhipments, both landed and shipped containers, tumbled in June and July. Lastly, the transport of liquid fuels via Transnet Pipelines (TPL) increased by 0,3% m/m in July, and by 2,5% on a quarterly basis, but still declined by 0,3% on an annual basis, partly reflecting the sluggishness of the economy.
While the drop in July’s Ctrack TFI suggests the logistics sector started Q3 on the backfoot, the index average for Q2 is still 2,8% higher than Q1, confirming our earlier expectation that the transport sector should be a positive contributor to overall GDP in Q2. The transport & communication sector has frequently been an outperformer among the other economic sectors, like in 2023 when the transport sector grew by 4,1% vs. overall GDP growth of a mere 0,7%.
The unexpected election outcome that has resulted in the formation of a Government of National Unity (GNU) has triggered an initial positive market response, as evidenced by favourable movements on the rand exchange rate and government bond yields. Early indications are that the GNU will sharpen its focus on accelerating structural reforms, specifically also the logistics sector, to bolster inclusive growth and job creation. This positive sentiment fuelled by the potential for a better outcome for South Africa in the medium term, in combination with ongoing reprieve from load shedding, has already started to be reflected in some economic activity indicators.
“While the drop in July’s Ctrack TFI suggests the logistics sector started Q3 on the backfoot, an overall positive sentiment is evident in the economy. We are encouraged by early signs that the newly formed Government of National Unity will sharpen its focus on accelerating structural reforms, among others in the critically important logistics sector, which could result in a better growth outcome for South Africa in the medium term,” says Hein Jordt, Chief Executive Officer of Ctrack. Source: Capital Equipment News