Retail Sales On The Downside In August, Following The Unrest And Pilfering In July

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15 October 2021 – Retail trade sales surprised on the downside in August due to lingering effects of the July unrest, pointing to the unevenness of the recovery in the South African economy in the third quarter.

Data from Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) yesterday showed that retail trade shrank 1.3 percent from a year earlier in August, dragged lower mainly by general dealers and retailers specialising in hardware, paint and glass.

This followed an upwardly revised 1.2 percent fall in July, and defied market estimates of a 2.6 percent rise in August.

This was also the second consecutive decline in retail activity since March, partly due to the lingering effects of recent violent events across the country and the protracted lockdown restrictions.

Nedbank senior economist Nicky Weimar said retail sales surprised on the downside in August, with the effects of the social unrests, lockdown and supply chain disruptions having a more pronounced impact than was generally anticipated.

Key findings: P6242.1 – Retail trade sales, August 2021

Measured in real terms (constant 2015 prices), retail trade sales decreased by 1,3% year-on-year in August 2021. Negative annual growth rates were recorded for:

  • retailers in hardware, paint and glass (-7,4%);
  • retailers in household furniture, appliances and equipment (-5,2%);
  • all ‘other’ retailers (-3,6%); and
  • general dealers (-3,0%).

The main negative contributor to this decrease was general dealers (contributing -1,3 percentage points).

Seasonally adjusted retail trade sales increased by 4,9% in August 2021 compared with July 2021. This followed month-on-month changes of -11,1% in July 2021 and 0,7% in June 2021. In the three months ended August 2021, seasonally adjusted retail trade sales decreased by 4,1% compared with the previous three months.

Retail trade sales increased by 2,6% in the three months ended August 2021 compared with the three months ended August 2020. The main positive contributors to this increase were:

  • general dealers (2,3% and contributing 1,0 percentage point);
  • all ‘other’ retailers (10,0% and contributing 0,9 of a percentage point); and
  • retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (6,0% and contributing 0,9 of a percentage point).

Source: Business Report