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South Africa GDP SHRINKS 2% IN Q1 2020

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1 July 2020 – The South African GDP shrank an annualised 2% on quarter in the three months to March of 2020, following a 1.4% contraction in the previous period and compared with market expectations of a 3.8% decline. It was the steepest contraction since the first quarter of 2019, amid the initial effects of the global pandemic on domestic activity even before the implementation of the nationwide lockdown on March 27th. Output declines were seen across half of the country’s sectors, primarily in mining & quarrying (-21.5% vs 1.8% in Q4) and manufacturing (-8.5% vs -1.8%). On a more positive note, notable growth was recorded in agriculture (27.8% vs -7.6%), on bumper production of grains and fruits; and finance, real estate & business activities (3.7% vs 2.7%). Year-on-year, the economy contracted 0.1%, after shrinking 0.5% in the previous period but less than market expectations of a 0.8% fall.

Stats

GDP Growth Rate in South Africa averaged 2.60 percent from 1993 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 7.60 percent in the fourth quarter of 1994 and a record low of -6.10 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

Forecast

GDP Growth Rate in South Africa is expected to be -5.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in South Africa to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 1.80 percent in 2021 and 2.30 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models. Source (Tradeeconomics)